The Hajj and Your Odds of Making it Someday.

Dame G
4 min readJun 28, 2023

by Dame Gueye

The Muslim pilgrimage known as the Hajj in Islamic circles is in full swing. 2023 Hajj marks the first time in almost 4 years that the annual Muslim ritual returns to its maximum capacity.

During the 4 year Covid stretch, Not even Islam holy shrine could be spared of the black swan (COVID-19.) In 2020, 2021, 2022, the Hajj looked very different with only a fraction of pilgrims allowed in. A significant scale back from the 2,500,000. strong crowd of years past. Fast forward to 2023, things are back to normal. Alhamdoulilah. This year one of the world’s largest religious gatherings has attracted more than 2+ million pilgrims thus far.

The ritual

Muslim pilgrims in Mecca circled the Kaaba, Islam’s holiest site, and then converged on a vast tent camp in the nearby desert, officially opening the annual 5-day Hajj pilgrimage. A ritual that calls for v pilgrims. to collect pebbles and cast them from a bridge to symbolically fight back against evil. The rituals during the Hajj largely commemorate prophet Ibrahim , his son Ishmael and Ishmael’s mother Hajar and their steadfast devotion to Allah.

The Question on every Muslim’s mind

As the Hajj, winds down and the pilgrims start making their way home, something hit me out of serendipity and it comes in a form of a question that is often asked by many Muslims but seldom thought through with a dose of reality. And the question is simply this:

When is my turn to make the HAJJ?

A fair question every Muslim of age has had to ask. Also a question that is guaranteed to illicit sympathy from other fellow Muslims who invariably and predictably always answer it the same way and with the same zeal: “Whenever God call upon you”

Ok fair enough. But the reality is, If we are lucky, the call will come in our lifetime but as Muslims we would be wise not discount the (statistical) odds against it. In other words, we may never go. Ouchhhh!! Simple as that.

Ok, before you go for my throat, ask for my head on a silver plater or herald epithet at me, please allow me to articulate why I asserted that.

Here is the reason why

To reiterate, Not Every Muslim (including those willing and physically and financially able) who wants to make the Hajj will. It’s a rather bold statement but one that is supported by statistics, facts and other tangential factors pertaining to Saudi Arabia itself.

The Math is Simple and very clear

With the Current Muslim World Population estimated at roughly 1.8 BILLION, and a peak capacity of 3 million pilgrims every year, a quick back-of-the-envelop calculation shows that it would take approximately 581 years for every Muslim to have the opportunity to make the Hajj. This figure does not even account for future birth rates or for people who have been already fortunate enough to perform the pillar.

At its peak in 2015, the Hajj included 3.16 million Pilgrims, needless to say the mismanagement of the overcrowded holy site. caused the deadliest stampede in Hajj. history. More than 2000 pilgrims were trampled to death. The next year in 2016, attendance dropped to an all-time low. One can safely assume that Correlation is causation in this case.

By now you might have correctly guessed that this is a capacity issue magnified and compounded by an ever growing Muslim population and by the fact that the event cannot be decentralized for obvious reasons.

Many critics are pointing fingers to the Saudi government for the way they manage the event and the secrecy that shrouds such Management.

They’ve poured billions of dollars into expanding pilgrimage accommodations that resulted in the destructions of the the many artifacts that used to be an integral part of the hajj experience but were either discontinued, destroyed or displaced to make way for luxury developments that cater to the wealthy pilgrims who can pay upward of $2,700. a night for a choice hotel overlooking the Kabbah. In other words, they have turned the whole thing into a pay-to-play scheme. Not Good…

Of course, I’ve editorialized and opined on this just as an intellectual exercise, but the eternal optimist in me tells me that I am up NEXT…. God will find a way, as He always does for all of his 1.8 Billion Muslims. I am so sure of that. Amen!!!

--

--

Dame G

A Dad, A Software Engineer, An all around Geek, An Economics Aficionado, A Professional Student. So teach me something